The development of new energy vehicles is the necessary way for my country to move from a big automobile country to a powerful automobile country.
At present, China has become a big country of new energy vehicles. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China both exceeded 3.5 million, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. The development of the new energy vehicle industry has entered a new stage of large-scale and rapid development. Ren Zeping, a well-known economist, and his research team released a report that in the global dual-carbon, new energy vehicles have entered a stage of explosive growth, and the penetration rate has increased rapidly. As the core component of providing power, the battery is the “heart” of new energy vehicles, accounting for more than 40% of the cost of the whole vehicle.The development of battery technology and the improvement of performance are the core power that determines the long-term development of new energy vehicles, and whoever wins the new energy battery wins the world.
According to the analysis of the report, looking forward to the future, the industry will present two major characteristics:
First, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will continue to increase. It is expected that by 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles will be about 18 million, and the domestic sales of new energy vehicles may reach 10 million; by 2030, the global sales of electric vehicles will be about 30 million.
Second, the industrialization of fuel cell vehicles is expected to advance. From 2030 to 2035, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will reach about 1 million, and commercial vehicles will achieve hydrogen power transformation.The development of the global new energy application field has entered the fast lane. In the future, technological breakthroughs will continue to promote the large-scale commercialization, and the industry will show a non-linear explosive development trend.
Batteries have always been the “heart” of new energy vehicles. At present, power batteries account for more than 40% of the cost of new energy passenger vehicles. The development of battery technology and the improvement of performance are the core driving forces that determine the long-term development of new energy vehicles.
Looking forward to the future, Ren Zeping believes that, on the one hand, the breakthrough development of fuel cell technology will expand the application space in the commercial field of new energy vehicles, and enrich more application scenarios such as large buses, logistics vehicles, heavy trucks, tractors and port trailers.On the other hand, with the gradual increase of the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles, the installed capacity of power batteries has increased significantly, and will continue to grow explosive in the future.
According to Ren Zeping, one major pillar is that the development of power batteries represented by lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries, which will continue to be the first pillar of the new energy battery industry. The two application scenarios refer to accelerate the application scenario of new energy passenger vehicles based on the cost advantage of existing power battery technology; the current lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium battery technology is absolutely dominant in passenger pure electric and hybrid vehicles, is in the commercial mass production stage, and is the first pillar supporting the development of new energy vehicles.Power batteries represented by lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries will continue to be the first pillar of the industry and be the “main force” for the development of new energy batteries in the next 5 to 10 years.