Ukungaqiniseki okukhulu kujikeleze iirhafu ezizayo zokungenisa izinto eMelika kwiiphaneli zelanga ezingenisiweyo kunye nezixhobo zokugcina amandla. Nangona kunjalo, ingxelo yakutshanje yeWood Mackenzie ("All in the tariff coaster: imiphumo kushishino lwamandla lwase-US") icacisa enye imiphumo: ezi rhafu ziya kunyusa kakhulu iindleko zamandla elanga kunyeindawo yokugcina amandla ebhetrieMelika.
I-US sele iyeyona marike ibiza kakhulu kwihlabathiamandla elanga asetyenziswa kakhuluUWood Mackenzie ulumkisa ukuba iirhafu eziqikelelweyo ziya kunyusa ezi ndleko ngakumbi. Le nkampani ikholelwa ukuba ukugcinwa kwamandla kujongene nefuthe elikhulu.
Ingxelo ichaza iimeko ezimbini ezinokwenzeka:
- ⭐ Uxinzelelo lwezorhwebo (iirhafu ze-10-34%):Kuqikelelwa ukuba iindleko zeteknoloji ezininzi ziya kunyuka nge-6-11%.
- ⭐Imfazwe yoRhwebo (iirhafu ezingama-30%): Ndingabona iindleko zinyuka nangakumbi.
1. Ukunyuka kweendleko ezithile phakathi kokungaqiniseki kwerhafu
Okubalulekileyo kukuba,indawo yokugcina ibhetri ngobukhulu bezixhobo zokusebenzayinto eyahlukileyo. Ngenxa yokuxhomekeka kakhulu kwe-US kwiiseli zebhetri ye-lithium ezingenisiweyo (ingakumbi ezivela eTshayina),iprojekthi yokugcina ibhetriiindleko zinokunyuka kakhulu – nge-12% ukuya ngaphezulu kwama-50% phantsi kweemeko ezinjalo.
Ngelixa ukwenziwa kweebhetri eMelika kusanda, uWood Mackenzie uqikelela ukuba amandla asekhaya aya kuhlangabezana kuphela ne-6% yemfuno ngo-2025 kwaye mhlawumbi i-40% ngo-2030, nto leyo eshiya ukuxhomekeka okukhulu kwiimveliso ezivela kwamanye amazwe ezisengozini yokuhlawuliswa.
2. Indawo yokugcina izinto ichaphazeleke kakhulu, iiprimiyamu zelanga ziyanda
Phantsi kweemeko ezimbini—Uxinzelelo lwezorhwebo (iirhafu ezili-10–34%) kunye neMfazwe yoRhwebo (iirhafu ezingama-30%)—uninzi lwetekhnoloji lujongene nokunyuka kweendleko nge-6–11%.Indawo yokugcina ibhetri yamandla elangayinto engaphandle ngenxa yokuxhomekeka ekungeniseni izinto kwamanye amazwe.
Iindleko zokugcina amandla elanga nazo ziya kubiza kakhulu: Isixhobo esisetyenziswa kakhulu eMelika singabiza ngaphezulu ngama-54% kunaseYurophu kunye nama-85% ngaphezulu kunaseTshayina ngo-2026. Iirhafu zemodyuli ezikhoyo kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yokudlulisa amandla elanga engasebenzi kakuhle sele zinyusa iindleko zelanga zase-US; iirhafu ezintsha ziya kwandisa le ntlawulo kubathengi.
3. Ukulibaziseka kweProjekthi kunye nokuphazamiseka kweShishini
Ukungaqiniseki kwerhafu yokungenisa impahla e-US kuphazamisa imijikelo yokucwangcisa yeminyaka emi-5 ukuya kweli-10, nto leyo ebangela "ukungaqiniseki okukhulu" kubadlali beshishini lombane.
UWood Mackenzie ulindele ukuba iprojekthi ilibaziseke, kwaye iphezuluIsivumelwano sokuThenga umbane (i-PPA)amaxabiso, kunye nefuthe leprojekthi enkulu. UChris Seiple, uSekela Sihlalo wePower & Renewables wenkampani, ulumkisa ukuba le migaqo-nkqubo ibeka emngciphekweni ukuphazamiseka kwekhonkco lokubonelela kunye nophuhliso olucothayo. Njengoko iindleko kunye namaxesha etshintshatshintsha, ingxelo ixela kwangaphambili ukuba umsebenzi weprojekthi evuselelekayo e-US uyancipha.
4. Isiphelo: Indlela Enzima Engaphambili
Iirhafu zokungenisa izinto ezivela eMelika ezilindelekileyo ngokwamazwe ngamazwe zisongela ukuphazamisa utshintsho lwaseMelika lwamandla acocekileyo ngokunyusa iindleko nokudala ukungaqiniseki.
Nangona imveliso yasekhaya isanda, ayizukwanelisa imfuno kungekudala, nto leyo eshiya i-US ixhomekeke kwizinto ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe - kwaye isengozini yokuphazamiseka kwamaxabiso. Abenzi bemigaqo-nkqubo kufuneka babe nokulinganisela phakathi kokukhuselwa korhwebo kunye nokufikeleleka, okanye babeke emngciphekweni wokulibazisa ukwamkelwa okuvuselelwayo.
Kumashishini, ukutshintsha iindlela zokubonelela ngeenkonzo kunye nokuvala iindleko zezixhobo kwangethuba kunokunceda ekunciphiseni iingozi. Ekugqibeleni, ngaphandle kohlengahlengiso olucwangcisiweyo, kuya kuba bheteleinkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetriamaxabiso anokuthintela inkqubela phambili ekufezekiseni iinjongo zemozulu.
▲ Cofa Apha Ukuze Uhlale Unolwazi NgeMigaqo-nkqubo Neendaba Zamva Nje Kwishishini Lelanga:https://www.youth-power.net/news/
▲ Ukuba unemibuzo yobuchwephesha okanye imibuzo malunga nokugcinwa kwebhetri yelanga, nceda uzive ukhululekile ukuqhagamshelana nathi kule dilesi. sales@youth-power.net.
Ixesha leposi: Juni-20-2025