Imarike yeeseli zebhetri zokugcina amandla kwihlabathi liphela ingena kumjikelo omtsha wokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Kwiinyanga zakutshanje, amaxabiso eeseli zebhetri zeLiFePO4, ngakumbiIiseli zebhetri ezingama-314Ah, zinyuke ngokukhawuleza kwaye ngoku zisondela kumda obalulekileyo we-0.4 RMB/Wh (malunga ne-$0.055/Wh).
Kubathengisi beebhetri zelanga ngobuninzi, abakhi be-EPC, abafaki belanga, kunye nabasasazi beendawo zokugcina umbane, le ndlela ayisayi kukwazi ukutyeshelwa. Iindleko zokuthenga ziyanda, imida yeprojekthi iyaqina, kwaye ukufumaneka kwezixhobo kuya kuba yingxaki enkulu.
Nantsi ke umbuzo obalulekileyo: Ngaba oku kukutshintshatshintsha kwexesha elifutshane okanye kukuqala komjikelo wexabiso elide?
Iindleko zeLithium Raw Material Drive Ixabiso lebhetri liyanyuka
Esona sizathu sithe ngqo sokunyukaibhetri yokugcina amandla elangaamaxabiso kukunyuka kweendleko zezinto eziluhlaza ezinyukayo.
NgoFebruwari 2026, iZimbabwe yabhengeza ukumiswa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-lithium concentrate, nto leyo eyabangela ukuba kubekho ukusabela okukhulu kwimarike. I-lithium carbonate futures inyuke ngaphezulu kwe-170,000 RMB ngetoni, xa kuthelekiswa ne-lows kufutshane ne-70,000 RMB ngetoni ekupheleni kuka-2025. Oku kubonisa phantse ukuphindaphindeka kabini kwiinyanga ezimbalwa.
Kwangaxeshanye, nezinye izinto eziphambili zebhetri nazo ziyanda:
- ● Amaxabiso efoyile yekopolo ayanyuka ngenxa yemfuno yemizi-mveliso
- ●Iindleko ze-aluminium ziyanda ngenxa yemida yamandla
- ●Uhlengahlengiso lwamaxabiso ezinto ze-Electrolyte
- ●Abavelisi bezinto ze-LFP babuyisela imida emva kokulahleka
Uqikelelo lweshishini lubonisa ukuba xa i-lithium carbonate yayimalunga ne-70,000–80,000 RMB/ton, ixabiso eliqikelelweyo leseli ye-314Ah LiFePO4 yayimalunga ne-0.28 RMB/Wh. Kwi-180,000 RMB/ton, ixabiso linyuka ngaphezulu kwe-0.36 RMB/Wh, nto leyo ebonisa ukunyuka okuphantse kube yi-30%.
Oku kuchaza isizathu sokuba abavelisi beebhetri betshintsha amaxabiso kwihlabathi liphela.
Imfuno Enamandla Yehlabathi Iyaqinisa Ubonelelo
Into yesibini ebalulekileyo ebangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ebhetri yokugcina amandla kukungalingani kwesakhiwo phakathi kokunikezelwa kunye nemfuno.
>> Icala leMfuno: Ukukhula Okukhawulezayo
Imfuno yeebhetri zokugcina amandla ikhula ngesantya esingaqhelekanga. Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuFebruwari 2026, ukuthunyelwa kweebhetri zokugcina amandla kwihlabathi liphela kufikelele kwi-84.8GWh, nto leyo emele ukunyuka kwe-108.9% unyaka nonyaka, nto leyo ethetha ukuba imfuno iphantse yaphindaphindeka kabini xa ithelekiswa nonyaka ophelileyo.
Izinto ezimbini ezintsha ezibangela ukukhula ziyawukhawulezisa lo mkhwa. Okokuqala, ukwanda ngokukhawuleza kwamaziko edatha e-AI kudala imfuno enamandla yeiinkqubo zokugcina amandla kwiziko ledatha, njengoko ulawulo lwamandla oluthembekileyo kunye nolawulo lwamandla luba ziimfuno ezibalulekileyo zeziseko zophuhliso. Okwesibini, emva kokuphunyezwa kweSicwangciso seMinyaka emihlanu saseTshayina, ukuhlanganiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo kunye nokugcinwa kwebhetri kuye kwaba yinto enyanzelekileyo kunokuba kube yinto yokuzikhethela, nto leyo eyomeleza ngakumbi imfuno yemarike.
Ngenxa yezi zinto zintsha ezibangela imfuno, icandelo lokugcina umbane liyaqhubeka nokukhula ngamandla nangona ixesha lokungasebenzi liqhelekile.
>> Icala Lokubonelela: Isithuba Sotshintsho Lwetekhnoloji
Kwicala lokubonelela, eli shishini okwangoku lijongene nomsantsa wexeshana wokubonelela obangelwa kukuphuculwa kobuchwepheshe. Abavelisi bayatshintsha ukusuka kwiiseli zebhetri ze-314Ah ukuya kwiiseli zesizukulwana esilandelayo ezinomthamo omkhulu we-500Ah+. Ngenxa yoko, ukwandiswa komthamo omdala we-314Ah kuye kwehla, ngelixa umthamo omtsha wemveliso uza kukhutshwa kuphela kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2026, nto leyo edala ukunqongophala kokubonelela kwexesha elifutshane.
Utshintsho kwiMigaqo-nkqubo lukhawulezisa ukuthengwa kwempahla
Imigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente waseTshayina ikwadlala indima enkulu ekubumbeni imfuno yebhetri kunye neendlela zokuxabisa.
Izinto ezininzi ezichaphazela imarike ziquka:
ETshayina, ixesha elidlulileyo lokunxibelelana kwegridi labangela ukwanda okukhuluukufakwa kweprojekthi yamandla elangaKutshanje, imigaqo-nkqubo emitsha ephucula iimodeli zengeniso yokugcina amandla iye yomeleza ngakumbi uqoqosho lweeprojekthi.
Ukongeza, ukuncitshiswa kwerhafu yokuthumela ngaphandle kwiibhetri ze-lithium (ukuhla ukusuka kwi-9% ukuya kwi-6% ukususela ngo-Epreli 2026) kukhuthaza abathengi ukuba bafumane umbane kwangethuba.
⭐ Ixesha elibekiweyo lokufakelwa kweprojekthi
Ixesha elidlulileyo lomgaqo-nkqubo woqhagamshelo lwegridi lishukumise iiprojekthi ezininzi zokugcina izinto ukuba zikhawulezise ukusasazwa, nto leyo edale ukunyuka kwemfuno. Kutshanje, imigaqo-nkqubo emitsha ephucula iimodeli zengeniso yokugcina amandla iye yomeleza ngakumbi uqoqosho lweeprojekthi.
⭐Utshintsho kwimarike yombane
Uhlengahlengiso kumaxabiso ombane afikelela kwincopho yentlambo kunye neemarike zeendawo zamandla kwezinye iindawo luye lwaphucula uqoqosho lotyalo-mali lokugcina izinto.
⭐Ukuncitshiswa kwerhafu yokuthumela ngaphandle
I-China ibhengeze ukubaizaphulelo zerhafu yokuthumela ngaphandle ibhetri ye-lithiumiza kuhla ukusuka kwi-9% ukuya kwi-6% ukususela ngo-Epreli 2026 kwaye iza kupheliswa ngo-2027. Uqikelelo lweshishini lubonisa ukuba oku kukodwa kunokunyusa iindleko zokuthumela ngaphandle kwebhetri malunga ne-0.01 RMB/Wh, nto leyo ebangela ukuba abathengi abaninzi bafumane iikhontrakthi zokubonelela kwangethuba.
⭐Umgaqo-nkqubo Uqhuba Imfuno Yebhetri
Abalawuli baseTshayina bakwabonisa utshintsho oluya kukhuphiswano olusempilweni ngokukhuthaza ukubhida ngamaxabiso aphantsi ngogonyamelo nangokukhuthaza amaxabiso aqhutywa ngumgangatho. Okwangoku, imigaqo-nkqubo emitsha yokuhlawula umthamo inokubonelela malunga ne-RMB 330/kW ngonyaka kwindawo yokugcina izinto ecaleni kwegridi. Ukuphucula i-IRR yeprojekthi ukusuka ngaphantsi kwe-5% ukuya malunga ne-8–12% kulindeleke ukuba kutsale utyalo-mali olutsha kwaye kukhuthaze ngakumbi imfuno yeeseli zebhetri.
Kwabaphuhlisi belanga behlabathi kunye nabathengi beebhetri, olu tshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo luqhuba ii-odolo ezikhawulezileyo eziqinileyo, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba imfuno yokugcina amandla ihlala iqinile nangona amaxabiso enyuka ixesha elifutshane.
Imvakalelo yeMarike nayo ichaphazela amaxabiso
Ngaphaya kweziseko, isayikholoji yemarike nayo idlala indima.
Nanini na xa umbane uncipha, ukuqikelela kudla ngokuvela kwishishini lelanga nakwishishini leebhetri. Abanye abathengisi baphakamisa iikowuteshini ngokusekelwe kulindelo kunotshintsho lwangempela lweendleko.
Oku kudala:
- ♦ Ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso kwexesha elifutshane
- ♦ Uhlengahlengiso olukhawulezileyo lweekowuteshini
- ♦ Ukunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwengxoxo
- ♦ Ungxamiseko phakathi kwabaphuhlisi beprojekthi
Nangona le nto idla ngokuba yeyokwexeshana, inokunyusa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngexesha lokungabikho kweenkonzo ezifunekayo.
Ngaba iiSeli zeBhetri ze-314Ah ziya kudlula i-0.4 RMB/Wh?
Umbuzo obalulekileyo kulo lonke eli shishini kukuba ingaba amaxabiso eeseli ze-314Ah aza kuphuka aze ahlale engaphezulu komda we-0.4 RMB/Wh.
Kwiiprojekthi ezininzi, eli nqanaba limele umda wezoqoqosho apho:
- ● I-IRR yeprojekthi iqala ukwehla
- ● Ukuxhasa ngemali kuya kusiba nzima ngakumbi
- ● Izigqibo zotyalo-mali ziyacotha
Abanye abaphuhlisi beendawo zokugcina izinto babonisa ukuba amaxabiso ahlala ehleli ngaphezulu kweli nqanaba anokunciphisa ukusebenza kweprojekthi kwiindawo ezithile.
Nangona kunjalo, imigaqo-nkqubo emitsha ephucula iindlela zokuhlawula umthamo wokugcina izinto inceda ekunciphiseni uxinzelelo lweendleko ngokwandisa amathuba engeniso kubaqhubi beendawo zokugcina izinto abazimeleyo.
Oku kuthetha ukuba nangona amaxabiso ebhetri enyuka, uqoqosho lweeprojekthi lunokuhlala lusebenza ngokuxhomekeke kwisakhiwo semarike kunye neemodeli zengeniso.
Imbonakalo yoShishino: Amaxabiso Angazinza Phantse kwiSithethe esitsha
Abavelisi beebhetri abaphambili ngokubanzi bakholelwa ukubaamaxabiso ebhetri ye-lithiumzisekwinqanaba lokunyuka kwixesha elifutshane. Nangona kunjalo, eli shishini ngoku likhulile ngakumbi kunangexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwangaphambili.
Izinto ezininzi ezizinzisayo ziquka:
- ● Imithombo eyahlukeneyo yokubonelela nge-lithium
- ● Ukuphuculwa kweendlela zokubonelela ngebhetri
- ● Ukukhulisa ezinye iindlela zobuchwepheshe bebhetri
- ● Iikhontrakthi zokubonelela ngeenkonzo zexesha elide
Ngenxa yoko, uninzi lwabahlalutyi lulindele ukuba iiseli zebhetri ze-314Ah zitshintshe malunga ne-0.4 RMB/Wh endaweni yokunyuka ngokungenammiselo.
Ukuba amaxabiso ahlala ephezulu kakhulu ixesha elide, imfuno yeprojekthi isenokucotha, ngokwemvelo ilungise amaxabiso ngokunciphisa ukuthengwa.
Le ndlela yokulinganisela umbane kunye neemfuno zombane iye yazinzisa iimarike zebhetri emva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Iiseli Ezinkulu Ezinomthamo Zinokuzinzisa Amaxabiso Ekupheleni Kowama-2026
Xa sijonga phambili, enye into ebalulekileyo enokubangela ukuba kubekho imiqobo yokubonelela kukuthengiswa kweeseli zebhetri ezingama-500Ah+.
Iiseli ezinkulu zibonelela ngezibonelelo ezifana nezi:
- √Iindleko eziphantsi zokudibanisa iinkqubo
- √Uxinano lwamandla aphezulu
- √Ukuncipha kwesithuba sesikhongozeli
- √Uqoqosho oluphuculweyo lweprojekthi
Njengoko ezi seli zesizukulwana esilandelayo zingena kwimveliso enkulu ngasekupheleni kuka-2026, uxinzelelo lombane kwiiseli ze-314Ah kulindeleke ukuba lunciphe.
Kubathengi abaceba iiprojekthi zokugcina iibhetri zelanga, oku kubonisa ithuba lokutshintsha ubuchwepheshe elinokuba luncedo ekujongeni.
Ibhetri ye-LiFePO4 enomthamo omkhulu we-500Ah yokugcina isizukulwana esilandelayo
Iindlela Ezizezinye Zobuchwephesha Zingena Kwimarike
Njengoko iindleko zebhetri ye-lithium zinyuka, abahlanganisi baphonononga nezinye iindlela zobuchwepheshe zokulawula umngcipheko.
Ezi ziquka:
- ●Iibhetri zeSodium-ion
- ● Iinkqubo ze-lithium-sodium ezixutyiweyo
- ● Ukwenziwa kweebhetri zasekuhlaleni
- ● Amaqhinga okudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo
Amaxabiso ebhetri yesodiyam sele ehlile aya kutsho kwi-0.52 RMB/Wh, nto leyo enciphisa umsantsa ngezisombululo ze-lithium.
Kwizicelo ezifana nezi:
- ● Ukugcinwa kwamandla ixesha elide
- ● Indawo yokugcina idatha egciniweyo
- ● Iiprojekthi zokulinganisela igridi
- ● Amaqhinga ebhetri exutyiweyo aqala ukuvela.
Kwabo badibanisa iinkqubo zokugcina amandla, ukwahlukahlukana kobuchwepheshe kuya kuba sisicwangciso esiphambili sokhuphiswano.
Oko Abathengi Bebhetri Yelanga Abafanele Bakwenze Ngoku
Kubasasazi beebhetri zelanga, abafaki, kunye nabakhi beeprojekthi, imakethi yangoku ibonisa izifundo ezibalulekileyo zokuthenga:
Iingcebiso eziphambili ziquka:
- ▲ Qinisekisa izivumelwano zokubonelela kwangethuba ukuze kuncitshiswe umngcipheko wamaxabiso
- ▲ Yahlulahlula amaqhinga okufumana ibhetri
- ▲ Lungiselela uyilo lwenkqubo ukuze unciphise iindleko ezikhulayo zeeseli
- ▲ Jonga amaxesha okwamkelwa kweeseli ezinomthamo omkhulu
- ▲ Vavanya ezinye iikhemikhali zebhetri
- ▲ Yiba liqabane no abavelisi bebhetri abathembekileyo
Ukusebenza kunyeabavelisi bebhetri yeLiFePO4 abanamavakunye neekhonkco zobonelelo ezizinzileyo kuya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo ngakumbi kwimeko yeendleko eziguquguqukayo.
Indlela iYouthPOWER ebaxhasa ngayo abathengi beGlobal Solar Storage
Njengomsebenzi oqeqeshiweyoUmenzi webhetri yelanga yeLiFePO4, iYouthPOWER iyaqhubeka nokuxhasa abathengi be-B2B behlabathi ngezisombululo zokubonelela ezizinzileyo nangona imakethi ingaguquguquki.
I-YouthPOWER igxile koku:
- ⭐ Ukuvelisa nokuthumela iibhetri zeLiFePO4 ezithembekileyo
- ⭐ Iinkqubo zebhetri yokugcina amandla elanga
- ⭐Izisombululo zebhetri ze-OEM kunye ne-ODM
- ⭐ Iibhetri zokugcina izinto zokuhlala, zorhwebo nezemizi-mveliso
- ⭐ Itekhnoloji yebhetri yobomi obude
- ⭐ Ukuthobela isiqinisekiso samazwe ngamazwe
Ngokudibanisa amava okuvelisa kunye nolwazi lwemarike yehlabathi, i-YouthPOWER inceda abathengisi belanga abathengisa ngobuninzi, abasasazi, kunye neenkampani ze-EPC ukuba zikwazi ukumelana nokuguquguquka kwamaxabiso kwaye zigcine ukhuphiswano lweeprojekthi.
Unyaka ka-2026 uza kuba ngunyaka obalulekileyo kwixabiso lokugcina amandla
Ukujonga phambili, u-2026 usenokuba ngunyaka obalulekileyo kwi-ibhetri yokugcina amandlaimboni.
Iindlela eziphambili ekufuneka uzibukele ziquka:
- ●Iindlela zokuzinzisa amaxabiso e-lithium
- ● Ukuthengiswa kweeseli ezinomthamo omkhulu
- ● Ukwamkelwa kwebhetri yeSodium
- ● Iindlela zokuxhasa ngemali iiprojekthi kwihlabathi liphela
- ● Uphuhliso lomgaqo-nkqubo wokugcina izinto
Nangona amaxabiso enokuthi adlule kwi-0.4 RMB/Wh okwethutyana, uninzi lwezibikezelo lubonisa ukuba oku akuyi kuhlala kusisigxina njengoko unikezelo lusanda.
Kubathengi abaziingcali, eyona ndlela ikrelekrele kukulungiselela kunokuba kucingelwe.
Iinkampani ezifumana ubudlelwane obuqinileyo bokubonelela ngeenkonzo namhlanje ziya kuba kwindawo engcono yokuphumelela iiprojekthi ngomso.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Epreli-01-2026