Imakethe yamaseli ebhethri okugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke ingena emjikelezweni omusha wokwenyuka kwamanani. Ezinyangeni zakamuva, amanani amaseli ebhethri e-LiFePO4, ikakhulukaziAmaseli ebhethri angu-314Ah, sebekhuphuke ngokushesha futhi manje sebesondela emkhawulweni oyinhloko ongu-0.4 RMB/Wh (cishe u-$0.055/Wh).
Kubathengisi bamabhethri elanga ngobuningi, osonkontileka be-EPC, abafaki belanga, kanye nabasabalalisi bezindawo zokugcina amandla, lo mkhuba usuba nzima ukuwushaya indiva. Izindleko zokuthenga ziyakhuphuka, izinzuzo zephrojekthi ziyaqina, futhi ukutholakala kwezinsiza kuba yinto ekhathazayo kakhulu.
Nasi umbuzo obalulekile: Ingabe lokhu kungukuguquguquka kwesikhathi esifushane noma ukuqala komjikelezo wentengo omude?
Izindleko Zezinto Ezingavuthiwe Ze-Lithium Intengo Yebhethri Yedrayivu Iyakhuphuka
Isizathu esiqondile kakhulu sokukhuphukaibhethri lokugcina amandla elangaamanani ukwanda kwezindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphukayo.
NgoFebhuwari 2026, iZimbabwe yamemezela ukumiswa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-lithium concentrate, okwabangela ukusabela okukhulu emakethe. I-Lithium carbonate futures yanda ngaphezu kwe-170,000 RMB ngethani, uma kuqhathaniswa nokwehla okuseduze ne-70,000 RMB ngethani ngasekupheleni kuka-2025. Lokhu kusho cishe ukuphindeka kabili phakathi nezinyanga ezimbalwa.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, nezinye izinto ezibalulekile zebhethri nazo ziyanda:
- ● Amanani e-copper foil ayanda ngenxa yesidingo sezimboni
- ●Izindleko ze-aluminium ziyakhuphuka ngenxa yemikhawulo yamandla
- ●Ukulungiswa kwentengo yezinto ze-Electrolyte
- ●Abakhiqizi bezinto ze-LFP babuyisela imingcele ngemva kokulahlekelwa
Izilinganiso zemboni zibonisa ukuthi lapho i-lithium carbonate yayicishe ibe ngu-70,000–80,000 RMB/ton, izindleko ezicatshangelwayo zeseli le-314Ah LiFePO4 zazicishe zibe ngu-0.28 RMB/Wh. Ku-180,000 RMB/ton, izindleko zikhuphuka ngaphezu kuka-0.36 RMB/Wh, okumele cishe ukwanda okungu-30%.
Lokhu kuchaza ukuthi kungani abakhiqizi bamabhethri beshintsha amanani emhlabeni jikelele.
Isidingo Esiqinile Somhlaba Wonke Siqinisa Ukunikezwa
Isici sesibili esikhulu esibangela ukwenyuka kwamanani ebhethri lokugcina amandla ukungalingani kwesakhiwo phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo.
>> Uhlangothi Lwesidingo: Ukukhula Okusheshayo
Isidingo samabhethri okugcina amandla sikhula ngesivinini esikhulu. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuFebhuwari 2026, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri okugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke kufinyelele ku-84.8GWh, okumele ukwanda okungu-108.9% unyaka nonyaka, okusho ukuthi isidingo sesicishe saphindeka kabili uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.
Abashayeli ababili abasha bokukhula basheshisa lo mkhuba. Okokuqala, ukwanda okusheshayo kwezikhungo zedatha ze-AI kudala isidingo esikhulu se-izinhlelo zokugcina amandla esikhungo sedatha, njengoba amandla okusekelayo athembekile kanye nokuphathwa kwamandla kuba izidingo ezibalulekile zengqalasizinda. Okwesibili, ngemuva kokuqaliswa koHlelo Lweminyaka Emihlanu lwaseShayina lwe-15, ukuhlanganiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo kanye nesitoreji sebhethri sekuyinto ephoqelekile kakhulu kunokuba kube yinto yokuzikhethela, okuqinisa isidingo semakethe.
Ngalezi zinto ezintsha ezibangela isidingo, umkhakha wokugcina amandla uyaqhubeka nokukhula kakhulu ngisho nangesikhathi sokuphumula esivamile.
>> Uhlangothi Lokunikezela: Igebe Lokuguquka Kobuchwepheshe
Ngasohlangothini lokunikezwa, imboni okwamanje ibhekene negebe lesikhashana lokunikezwa elibangelwa ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe. Abakhiqizi bashintsha kusuka kumaseli ebhethri angu-314Ah baye kumaseli amakhulu esizukulwane esilandelayo angu-500Ah+. Ngenxa yalokho, ukwanda komthamo omdala we-314Ah kuye kwehla, kuyilapho umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza uzokhishwa engxenyeni yesibili ka-2026, okudala ukushoda kokunikezwa kwesikhathi esifushane.
Izinguquko Zenqubomgomo Zisheshisa Ukuthengwa Kwempahla
Izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni waseShayina nazo zidlala indima enkulu ekubumbeni isidingo sebhethri kanye nezitayela zamanani.
Izici eziningana zenqubomgomo ezithonya imakethe zifaka:
E-China, izinsuku zokugcina zokuxhuma igridi zangaphambi kwesikhathi zabangela igagasiukufakwa kwephrojekthi yamandla elangaMuva nje, izinqubomgomo ezintsha ezithuthukisa amamodeli emali engenayo yokugcina amandla ziye zaqinisa kakhulu umnotho wamaphrojekthi.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwehliswa kwentela yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kumabhethri e-lithium (okwehla kusuka ku-9% kuya ku-6% kusukela ngo-Ephreli 2026) kukhuthaza abathengi ukuthi bathole ukunikezwa kusenesikhathi.
⭐ Izinsuku zokugcina zokufakwa kwephrojekthi
Izinsuku zokugcina zenqubomgomo yokuxhumeka kwegridi zangaphambilini zashukumisela amaphrojekthi amaningi okugcina izimpahla ukuthi asheshise ukuthunyelwa, okwadala ukwanda kwesidingo. Muva nje, izinqubomgomo ezintsha ezithuthukisa amamodeli emali engenayo yokugcina amandla ziye zaqinisa kakhulu umnotho wamaphrojekthi.
⭐Izinguquko zemakethe kagesi
Ukulungiswa kwentengo kagesi esigodini esikhulu kanye nezimakethe zamandla kwezinye izifunda kuthuthukise umnotho wokutshalwa kwezimali ezindaweni zokugcina izimpahla.
⭐Ukwehliswa kwentela yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe
IShayina imemezele ukuthiizaphulelo zentela yokuthumela ngaphandle kwebhethri le-lithiumizokwehla kusuka ku-9% iye ku-6% kusukela ngo-Ephreli 2026 futhi izoqedwa ngo-2027. Izilinganiso zemboni zisikisela ukuthi lokhu kukodwa kungakhuphula izindleko zokuthumela ngaphandle kwebhethri cishe ngo-0.01 RMB/Wh, okubangela abathengi abaningi ukuthi bathole izinkontileka zokuphakelwa kusenesikhathi.
⭐Inqubomgomo Iqhuba Isidingo Sebhethri
Abalawuli baseShayina nabo babonisa ushintsho oluya ekuncintisaneni okunempilo ngokukhuza ukubhida okunamandla ngamanani aphansi nokukhuthaza amanani asekelwe ekhwalithini. Okwamanje, izinqubomgomo ezintsha zokukhokha umthamo zingase zinikeze cishe i-RMB 330/kW minyaka yonke yokugcina isitoreji ohlangothini lwegridi. Ukuthuthukisa iphrojekthi ye-IRR kusuka ngaphansi kuka-5% kuya cishe ku-8-12% kulindeleke ukuthi kudonsele utshalomali olusha futhi kukhuthaze kakhulu isidingo samaseli ebhethri.
Kwabathuthukisi belanga emhlabeni jikelele kanye nabathengi bamabhethri, lezi zinguquko zenqubomgomo ziqhuba ama-oda aqinile kusengaphambili, okubonisa ukuthi isidingo sokugcina amandla sisalokhu siqinile naphezu kokwenyuka kwentengo yesikhashana.
Imizwa Yemakethe Iphinde Ithonye Amanani
Ngaphandle kwezisekelo, i-market psychology nayo idlala indima.
Noma nini lapho ukunikezwa kwamandla kuncipha, ukuqagela kuvame ukuvela kokubili embonini yelanga kanye nemboni yamabhethri. Abanye abahlinzeki baphakamisa izingcaphuno ngokusekelwe kokulindelekile kunezinguquko zangempela zezindleko.
Lokhu kudala:
- ♦ Ukuguquguquka kwentengo yesikhathi esifushane
- ♦ Ukulungiswa kwesilinganiso esisheshayo
- ♦ Ukunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwezingxoxo
- ♦ Ukuphuthuma phakathi kwabathuthukisi bephrojekthi
Nakuba lesi sici ngokuvamile singesesikhashana, singakhulisa ukwenyuka kwentengo ngesikhathi sokuntuleka kokunikezwa kwempahla.
Ingabe Amaseli Ebhethri angu-314Ah Azodlula u-0.4 RMB/Wh?
Umbuzo obalulekile kulo lonke imboni ukuthi amanani eseli angu-314Ah azokwephuka yini futhi ahlale engaphezu komkhawulo ongu-0.4 RMB/Wh.
Kumaphrojekthi amaningi, leli zinga limelela umngcele wezomnotho lapho:
- ● I-IRR yephrojekthi iqala ukwehla
- ● Ukuxhasa ngezimali kuba nzima kakhulu
- ● Izinqumo zokutshalwa kwezimali zihamba kancane
Abanye abathuthukisi besitoreji babonisa ukuthi amanani aqhubekayo angaphezu kwaleli zinga anganciphisa ukusebenza kwephrojekthi ezindaweni ezithile.
Kodwa-ke, izinqubomgomo ezintsha ezithuthukisa izindlela zokukhokha umthamo wokugcina zisiza ekunciphiseni ingcindezi ethile yezindleko ngokwandisa amathuba emali engenayo kubaqhubi bezindawo zokugcina abazimele.
Lokhu kusho ukuthi nakuba amanani ebhethri enyuka, umnotho wephrojekthi ungase uhlale usebenza kuye ngesakhiwo semakethe kanye namamodeli emali engenayo.
Umbono Wemboni: Amanani Angase Azinze Eduze Nesimo Esisha
Abakhiqizi bamabhethri abaphambili ngokuvamile bakholelwa ukuthiamanani ebhethri le-lithiumzisesesigabeni sokukhuphuka esikhathini esifushane. Kodwa-ke, imboni manje isivuthiwe kakhulu kunangesikhathi sokukhuphuka kwamanani kwangaphambilini.
Izici eziningana zokuzinza zifaka:
- ● Imithombo yokuphakelwa kwe-lithium ehlukahlukene kakhulu
- ● Amaketanga okuhlinzeka ngebhethri athuthukisiwe
- ● Ukukhulisa ubuchwepheshe bebhethri obuhlukile
- ● Izinkontileka zokuphakelwa kwesikhathi eside
Ngenxa yalokho, abahlaziyi abaningi balindele ukuthi amaseli ebhethri angu-314Ah ashintshe cishe ngo-0.4 RMB/Wh kunokuba akhuphuke unomphela.
Uma amanani ehlala ephezulu kakhulu isikhathi eside kakhulu, isidingo sephrojekthi cishe sizohamba kancane, ngokwemvelo silungise amanani ngokuthengwa okuncishisiwe.
Le ndlela yokulinganisa ukuhlinzekwa kwezidingo ikwazile ukuzinzisa izimakethe zamabhethri ngemuva kokwenyuka kwentengo.
Amaseli Anamandla Amakhulu Angase Azinzise Amanani Ekupheleni Kuka-2026
Uma sibheka phambili, into eyodwa ebalulekile engase inciphise imikhawulo yokuhlinzekwa ukuthengiswa kwamaseli ebhethri angu-500Ah+.
Amaseli amakhulu anikeza izinzuzo ezifana nalezi:
- √Izindleko eziphansi zokuhlanganiswa kwesistimu
- √Ubuningi bamandla aphezulu
- √Ukuncipha kwesibalo sezinto ezitsheni
- √Ukuthuthukiswa komnotho wephrojekthi
Njengoba la maseli esizukulwane esilandelayo engena ekukhiqizweni okukhulu ngasekupheleni kuka-2026, ingcindezi yokuphakelwa kwamaseli angu-314Ah kulindeleke ukuthi yehle.
Kubathengi abahlela amaphrojekthi okugcina amabhethri elanga, lokhu kusikisela ithuba lokushintsha ubuchwepheshe elifanele ukuqashelwa.
Ibhethri le-LiFePO4 elinomthamo omkhulu ongu-500Ah lesitoreji sesizukulwane esilandelayo
Ubuchwepheshe Obuhlukile Bungena Emakethe
Njengoba izindleko zebhethri le-lithium zikhuphuka, abahlanganisi nabo bahlola ubuchwepheshe obuhlukile bokulawula ubungozi.
Lokhu kufaka phakathi:
- ●Amabhethri e-sodium-ion
- ● Izinhlelo ze-lithium-sodium ezihlanganisiwe
- ● Ukukhiqizwa kwamabhethri endawo
- ● Amasu okuhlanganisa aqondile
Amanani ebhethri le-sodium asehlile kakade afinyelela cishe ku-0.52 RMB/Wh, okunciphisa igebe ngezixazululo ze-lithium.
Kuzinhlelo zokusebenza ezifana nalezi:
- ● Isitoreji samandla esihlala isikhathi eside
- ● Isitoreji sokulondoloza idatha sesikhungo sedatha
- ● Amaphrojekthi okulinganisa igridi
- ● amasu ebhethri elihlanganisiwe aseqala ukuvela.
Kwabahlanganisi bezinhlelo zokugcina amandla, ukuhlukahluka kobuchwepheshe sekuba isu elibalulekile lokuncintisana.
Lokho Abathengi Bamabhethri Elanga Okufanele Bakwenze Manje
Kwabasabalalisi bamabhethri elanga, abafaki, kanye nabakhi bephrojekthi, imakethe yamanje ikhombisa izifundo eziningana ezibalulekile zokuthenga:
Izincomo ezibalulekile zifaka:
- ▲ Vikela izivumelwano zokuphakelwa kusenesikhathi ukuze unciphise ubungozi bentengo
- ▲ Shintsha amasu okuthola amabhethri
- ▲ Lungiselela ukwakheka kwesistimu ukuze unciphise izindleko zeseli ezikhuphukayo
- ▲ Gada izikhathi zokwamukelwa kwamaseli amakhulu
- ▲ Hlola amakhemikhali ebhethri ahlukile
- ▲ Hlanganyela no abakhiqizi bebhethri abathembekile
Ukusebenza neabakhiqizi bebhethri be-LiFePO4 abanolwazingezintambo zokuhlinzeka ezizinzile kuba yinto ebaluleke kakhulu esimweni sezindleko eziguquguqukayo.
Indlela i-YouthPOWER esekela ngayo abathengi bezindawo zokugcina ilanga emhlabeni jikelele
NjengochwephesheUmkhiqizi webhethri lelanga le-LiFePO4, i-YouthPOWER iyaqhubeka nokusekela amakhasimende e-B2B omhlaba wonke ngezixazululo zokuphakelwa ezizinzile naphezu kokuguquguquka kwemakethe.
I-YouthPOWER igxile ku:
- ⭐ Ukukhiqiza nokuthumela ibhethri le-LiFePO4 elithembekile
- ⭐ Izinhlelo zebhethri zokugcina amandla elanga
- ⭐Izixazululo zebhethri ze-OEM ne-ODM
- ⭐ Amabhethri okugcina ezindawo zokuhlala, ezentengiselwano kanye nezezimboni
- ⭐ Ubuchwepheshe bebhethri lokuphila komjikelezo omude
- ⭐ Ukuhambisana nesitifiketi samazwe ngamazwe
Ngokuhlanganisa ulwazi lokukhiqiza nokuqonda kwemakethe yomhlaba wonke, i-YouthPOWER isiza abathengisi belanga ngobuningi, abasabalalisi, kanye nezinkampani ze-EPC ukuthi babhekane nokushintshashintsha kwamanani futhi balondoloze ukuncintisana kwamaphrojekthi.
Unyaka ka-2026 uzoba unyaka obalulekile wentengo yokugcina amandla
Uma sibheka phambili, u-2026 ungaba unyaka obalulekile ku-ibhethri lokugcina amandlaimboni.
Izitayela ezibalulekile okufanele uzibuke zifaka:
- ●Izitayela zokuzinzisa intengo ye-lithium
- ● Ukuthengiswa kwamaseli amakhulu
- ● Ukwamukelwa kwebhethri le-sodium
- ● Izitayela zokuxhaswa ngezimali kwamaphrojekthi emhlabeni jikelele
- ● Intuthuko yenqubomgomo yokugcina izinto
Nakuba amanani angadlula okwesikhashana u-0.4 RMB/Wh, izibikezelo eziningi zisikisela ukuthi lokhu ngeke kuhlale kuphakade njengoba ukunikezwa kwanda.
Kubathengi abangochwepheshe, indlela ehlakaniphile kakhulu ukulungiselela kunokuqagela.
Izinkampani ezithola ubambiswano oluqinile lokuhlinzeka namuhla zizoba sesimweni esihle kakhulu sokuwina amaphrojekthi kusasa.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Ephreli-01-2026