Battery Shortage Intensifies as LiFePO4 3.2V 100Ah Cells Sell Out, Prices Climb Over 20%
The global energy storage market is facing a significant supply crunch, particularly for the small-format cells essential for residential solar storage systems. Despite aggressive expansion plans by China's major battery manufacturers, overwhelming demand has pushed order backlogs for popular LiFePO4 3.2V 100Ah cells all the way to 2026, with prices soaring over 20% since the start of the year. This squeeze highlights a critical bottleneck in the supply chain for home solar energy systems.
Residential Storage Feels the Heat
The pressure is most acute in the residential storage sector. The backbone of many home solar energy systems, small-storage cells in the 50Ah to 100Ah range, are in critically short supply. Industry leaders like EVE Energy confirm that "battery capacity is currently tight," with production lines running at full capacity. This has resulted in order books for 100Ah prismatic cells being filled until early 2026. Consequently, prices have jumped from around ¥0.33 per Wh to over ¥0.40 per Wh, with urgent orders commanding premiums above ¥0.45.
A Mismatched Expansion Cycle
In response to the soaring demand, top China battery storage manufacturers like CATL, BYD, and others have launched a new wave of expansion. However, this new capacity is not evenly distributed. A large portion of the investment is targeted at producing large-format cells, such as 300Ah and 314Ah battery cells, which are preferred for utility-scale storage due to lower system costs. This creates a structural imbalance, as the new production lines are not primarily addressing the shortage of the small-format cells that dominate home systems. This mismatch leaves residential solar storage systems vulnerable to continued supply constraints.
The Technology Shift Deepening the Shortage
The industry's natural technological evolution is worsening the supply crunch for established cell formats. Newer, higher-capacity phase-two cells like the 314Ah variant are rapidly gaining market share, displacing older 280Ah lines. As manufacturers phase out these older production lines for newer technologies, the effective supply of smaller cells is further constrained. Furthermore, system integrators are increasingly designing residential storage systems around these larger, more energy-dense cells, accelerating the shift away from the traditional 100Ah standard and reshaping future product offerings.
Policy-Driven Demand and a Long Road Ahead
Strong governmental support for energy storage ensures that demand will remain high for the foreseeable future. Massive domestic storage tenders and national action plans targeting significant growth by 2027 guarantee a robust market. While battery giants like CATL predict capacity constraints will ease in the coming quarters, the industry consensus is that the structural shortage of small-storage cells will persist into the first half of 2026. For manufacturers of residential storage systems and consumers alike, the era of tight supply and elevated prices for key LiFePO4 battery cells is far from over.
Post time: Nov-05-2025