In 2030, new energy represented by photovoltaic + energy storage will subvert the entire pattern of traditional energy production!
Problems that need to be solved to completely overturn traditional energy? Realize low-cost photovoltaic + low-cost energy storage, and the overall cost is lower than that of thermal power. The cost of the photovoltaic system has been reduced to RMB 3/W, and the cost of some distributed power stations has been reduced to RMB 2.35/W. I think the system cost reached 60 RMB/W in 2007, and in 13 years, the cost has dropped to 5%; soon phosphoric acid The iron-lithium energy storage system is reduced to less than 1 yuan/wh, and the number of charging and discharging can reach 10,000 times.
In 2025, the cost of photovoltaic system will reach 2 yuan/W, and 25 years of depreciation plus financial costs will be allocated. 1500 hours/year of power generation hours, the cost of electricity is less than 0.1 yuan per kilowatt-hour; the cost of energy storage system is less than 1 yuan/WH, charging The number of releases is 10,000 times, depreciated for 15 years, and the cost of storage per kilowatt-hour is less than 0.1 yuan per kilowatt-hour; the cost of photovoltaic + energy storage system is 0.2 yuan/kw, and the cost is expected to drop to less than 0.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2030, which is much lower than the cost. Fossil Energy.
In 2020, the global electricity consumption is about 30 trillion kWh. With the rapid development of electrification, the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 50 trillion kWh in 2030. With a high probability of an event in 2030, photovoltaic + energy storage can occupy 30% of the global power market, about 15 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity. From the perspective of global power generation conditions, an average of 1250 hours of annual power generation can be expected, with 1GW (1 million kilowatts) of installed capacity of about 1.25 billion kWh.
15 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity requires a total installed capacity of 12,000 GW, and the ground installation covers an area of about 120,000 square kilometers. It is predicted that the cost of photovoltaic ground system in 2025 is 2 yuan/W (module 1 yuan/W); in 2030, 1.8 yuan/W (module 0.8 yuan/W), the future demand of photovoltaic market demand for 10 years, 12000*18-=21.6 trillion, 21.6 Trillion yuan.
In 2040, the global power demand will reach 70 trillion kWh, occupying 60% of the global power market in 2040, about 42 trillion kWh, and requiring a total installed capacity of 33600GW. In 2030-2040, there will be an additional 21,600GW of photovoltaic installations and additional ground installations. The land area is 210,000 square kilometers.
In terms of cost, 1.6 yuan/W (module 0.7 yuan/W) in 2035, 1.5 yuan/W (module 0.6 yuan/W) in 2040, and the overall photovoltaic market is 21,600*15=32.4 trillion yuan, entering a period of stable development.
2021-2030 will be a platinum decade for the photovoltaic industry.